China and the United States are expected to move toward reconciliation and do not affect the domestic 5G process.

Core point of view:

The communications industry's revenue and net profit maintained steady growth. 2017 annual revenue was 764.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.52%; net profit was 19.988 billion yuan, an increase of 22.91%. In 2018, the three major operators expect a total capital expenditure of 291.1 billion yuan, down 5.13% year-on-year. Capital expenditures are expected to bottom out in the next year. The rapid growth of the cloud computing industry has brought demand to the IDC industry, and the IDC industry has been able to maintain a 30% growth rate in the next three years after a round of reshuffle. The Beidou network has accelerated globally, and orders are expected to resume after the military reform is launched. The high-precision application of Beidou is gradually being promoted.

Report summary:

The ZTE embargo incident does not affect the domestic 5G process. On April 16, the US Department of Commerce made a decision to activate the refusal order of ZTE, and adopted export control measures for ZTE, which became a market suppression factor in the short term. We believe that China and the United States are expected to move toward reconciliation and do not affect the domestic 5G process.

The evolution of 5G network architecture will drive the growth of optical communication demand in many fields such as pre-transmission and backhaul.

China and the United States are expected to move toward reconciliation and do not affect the domestic 5G process.

Investment opportunities brought about by the rapid growth of the cloud computing industry. The wide application of cloud computing technology is the core driving force for the IDC market. It is estimated that China's market size in 2019 will be close to RMB190 billion. At the same time, data center communication products are iteratively faster than traditional telecom market products, so the upgrade of data center architecture is a huge opportunity for the optical communication industry.

The Beidou network has been accelerating globally, and high-precision applications are in the ascendant. In May 2018, the Beidou system has reached 31 satellites, and in 2018 it plans to launch about 18 satellites. The Beidou global network has gone further. With the maturity of the technology and the awareness of satellite navigation in the society, the application range of high-precision satellite navigation and positioning continues to expand. In 2020, the market scale of China's high-precision satellite navigation and positioning application is expected to reach 21.530 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.90. %.

Mid-term investment strategy for the communications industry: 5G opens the Internet of Everything and focuses on growth opportunities in the segment. We have sorted out the development of the communications industry in 2017. We suggest that we focus on the 5G direction in the second half of the year and select the growth stocks in the segment from the bottom up. It is recommended to pay attention to FiberHome Communications and Lightspeed Technology in the 5G industry;

Cloud computing brings downstream opportunities to Halo New Network and Zhongji Xuchuang; segmentation direction SIP phone leader Yilian Network; Beidou industry's Haige Communication; performance is expected to usher in China Unicom.

Risk warning: Sino-US trade frictions have intensified; 5G and operator capital expenditures are lower than expected.

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