On October 15, the new fertile soil and new energy automobile industry investment (Changshu) summit was held at the Changshu International Conference Center. The summit was jointly sponsored by the Changshu Municipal People's Government and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. The summit invited the national ministries and commissions and industry experts to interpret the latest industrial development policies, and conducted in-depth discussions on the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, corporate investment and development strategies.
As a first-tier city for new energy development, Shanghai has played an invaluable driving force for the development of the new energy vehicle market. Ding Xiaohua, deputy director of the Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Public Data Collection and Monitoring Research Center, made these years on the development of Shanghai New Energy Vehicles. Out of the analysis.
Ding Xiaohua said:
Regarding the number of applications for the promotion of new energy vehicles in Shanghai, we have done some collection since 11 years, so we have this data since 2011. In 2015, Shanghai had four characteristics. One was that PHEVs accounted for 77%, private users accounted for 63%, and passenger cars accounted for 92%.
Another is that Shanghai is different from the whole country. If it is four or six, Shanghai's new energy public sector is four, and private accounted for six. Because Shanghai's private consumption is license-driven, this is a little different from the whole country. Our organization is a newly established non-profit organization established in Shanghai in 2014.
Shanghai New Energy Vehicle has gone through three stages. The first one is the initial stage. We are more of a consumer questionnaire. At that time, it was a potential user, because everyone knows that there are very few new energy vehicles in 2011 and 2012. We have established a test drive test base, which is still in operation so far. There are more than 4,000 questionnaires every year, that is, various new energy vehicles are provided to consumers free of charge here. After the completion of the survey, fill in a questionnaire. This is the source of our potential user questionnaire, which has been done for six years. In 2011, when I opened the car, I felt that this was not a normal car. The electric car was similar to a traditional car. It was developed step by step.
The second phase is the period from 2013 to 2014. One is the data collection and exchange of electric vehicles in Shanghai and Los Angeles. At the same time, we also began to establish a collection standard, which can be said to be very difficult at that time, because for all manufacturers, giving data and giving data is a difficult process. Now, we have entered the first In the third stage, we have more than 80,000 new energy vehicles, and we are slowly on the right track. We are now more about the application of the scene.
At present, we have such capabilities: the first one is the acquisition capability. We are building the next-generation second-phase system, called 300,000 licenses. We have a model that predicts that if we follow the existing policy, we will be around 2020. Shanghai's new energy vehicles are around 300,000 vehicles. We are not very optimistic, because this model gives us the data we don't feel too optimistic.
The second is the regulatory capability. The important supervision in this platform is to help the government to do something. For example, PHEV is a city with a high proportion in Shanghai. In foreign countries, how to make these PHEV users Drive more with electricity than with oil. There is battery regulation, we don't study the battery itself, but if the battery changes in batches, this is what the government is worried about, especially the battery of the bus. There is also a service capability. This data center not only serves Shanghai, we hope to provide such service capabilities in the Yangtze River Delta and other cities, and finally our analysis method.
Speaking of data, we can't do without the data structure. From this direction, there are so many major categories, the first is the class of the actual user, the class of the potential user, the class of the public charging pile, and the satisfaction of one. Degree, there are three sources of data here. The first one is the 80,000 cars we said. This comes from the collection device installed on each car. The second category is called potential users. We have more than 4,000 questionnaires every year. This is not buying a car. The third category is that after buying a car, we have to do two hundred to four hundred questionnaires each year, because the data itself can't answer many questions, and only through this kind of questionnaire, we can reveal the problems that the data can't answer, so we have three Class data structure, and formed such a big 14 data.
This scene is about driving behavior. How do consumers open every day? This is a certain brand. On the right is the questionnaire of 400 users we made last year. They can also see the plug-in daily mileage. The second scene, consumers charge not charging, how to charge, where to charge, like when to charge, etc. This also gives a brand, some of their distribution.
The third one is to look at the logistics vehicles. From here, we can see that there is a clear difference between them and the private cars. Their mileage is 26 kilometers. The logistics vehicles are all pure electric in Shanghai. This is already bigger than the private ones. , basically doubled. And it is not twice a day, so the characteristics of the logistics car, you see its distribution of sunrise time, you can also see that it is slightly different from the private, but still relatively concentrated.
The logistics vehicles are concentrated in the city center. If you want to cross the province, go to Jiangsu and go to Zhejiang. This is their current behavior. Why is it difficult to answer because it depends on the questionnaire? The interview only knew that we only knew the results. You can see that the east-west direction is relatively dense. In connection with the license of Shanghai, the logistics vehicle is also licensed. It is difficult to have a license in the urban area, so the policy will also affect the behavior.
Followed by the charging map, where the consumer is at night, and charging is not charging, you can see its hot strength to reflect. These are just some of the scenarios we say we can do. Also we see, car users, daily mileage can we define? For users with a daily average mileage of more than 200 kilometers, we believe that these users are basically impossible to be private users, and there are very few companies that have a corporate car, which is basically a special car. This brings up a question, how to guide these cars to use electricity without oil? Because if it is opened with oil, it will be contrary to our subsidy policy, and it will be reversed. But you can't simply say that the Uber can only use pure electricity and cannot plug in. So how to guide these people may be a more important management issue in the future.
For Shanghai users, the motor speed of four thousand revolutions is not high, so how do you match the motor to achieve the highest efficiency. In other words, in a city with a lot of congestion, if the high speed may not be this feature, it can only be said that the data can be applied to these features. If a day's two charge is almost electricity for PHEV users, so if you solve it at home and business, how to fully charge, there is no problem. The consumer actually only charges for about four hours at night, because the personal consumer mileage is not long, he will not run out of electricity, even if there are eight hours of plug-in time at night, but the actual effective charging time is only four hours. .
In summary, there are some points. The first is Shanghai's new energy vehicles, which have already exceeded 86,000 units (including imported cars). The second is the structure of 2015. The proportion of private users is very high. I estimate that in the following years, as long as Shanghai's license policy, the free license policy for electric vehicles will not be refunded, the proportion of private users will not be low. Third, the average daily mileage of private consumers does not exceed 50 kilometers. We were very low for the first two years, only 30 kilometers. It started to be high in 2015, because consumers are familiar with electric vehicles and dare to use them.
Second, private consumers tend to charge after 10 pm, and generally between 10 and 6 o'clock, the proportion of charging is relatively high (referring to charging time, not plug-in time). Secondly, private PHEV users account for less than 4% of charge per charge, which is 63%, which means that it is not very long. There is also a logistics car's activity space mainly in the downtown area, and there is no obvious peak of commuting to the car. In addition, our research unit Tsinghua University found that in the case of two days of charging, consumers can almost be in a state of pure electric travel. There is also a study we have done for Japanese cars. Shanghai PHEV users reach 90% of how many miles he is. Look at the data is 90 kilometers. Basically, all users don't have to worry, you don't have to charge every day, even if you charge it once every three days, because we can see that consumers don't have the habit of charging every day, you only need to let him have a habit of three days, basically Can solve the problem. There is also research on Tongji University, where the motor is relatively low speed. I mainly talk about these findings. I mainly want to tell you that these data can be used in many applications. Of course, our research is still relatively narrow. We hope that more institutions will cooperate with us. We will conduct research and the principle is impossible. Any sales and transactions can't even be taken out, but we can do it as a research.
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