Macquarie Securities issued the latest report, pointing out the three LED lighting market trends, optimistic that commercial lighting is better than the residential lighting market, high power outperforms the medium and low power lighting market, and believes that lighting development will be better than the bulb market, stock picking Some are optimistic about high-power packaging plants, but have more doubts about chip factories.
Macquarie pointed out that although the current focus of the LED lighting market is still on residential lighting, commercial and industrial lighting is expected to have a better positive development space in the short and medium term, under the high daily consumption of commercial and industrial lighting. The cost of high-end front LEDs is not a problem, but more emphasis on the overall cost of ownership of the manufacturer and the return period of about one year; on the contrary, in terms of residential lighting, the 4.3-year return period is still too frequent, and the cost The problem is also the suppression of the development of the residential lighting market in the short and medium term.
Under the high gross profit and high entry threshold, Macquarie is optimistic that high-power LED lighting outperforms the medium and low-power lighting market, pointing out that high-power LED products require larger and brighter chips, and the required technology is also better. Complex, plus outdoor lighting uses high-power products, while indoor lighting uses high-, medium-, and low-power products; in addition, it is believed that Chinese manufacturers and backlight manufacturers will be the first to switch to medium and low-power markets in the short term. To bring more competition to this field, the competition in the high-power market is less intense.
Macquarie pointed out that although the market is mostly focused on LED bulbs, optimistic about the growth of the lighting market has more potential, considering that the bulb involves the light source and the luminaire is a complete lighting device; he also cited the investigation of the research institute, pointing out The overall lighting market will reach $108 billion in 2012, with lighting fixtures accounting for 60% and bulbs accounting for 40%.
For the LED group, Macquarie is optimistic about high-power packaging manufacturers, but there are doubts about chip manufacturers; and among packaging manufacturers, optimistic about high-power manufacturers outperform traditional LED backlight packaging plants, and point out that experienced manufacturers will have advantages The Taiwanese factory is optimistic about Edison.
Macquarie further pointed out doubts about pure LED chip manufacturers such as Jingdian, and believes that the LED TV price gap will fall this year, which will bring the industry to focus on the cost reduction strategy. For Taiwanese manufacturers, LED panel manufacturers will produce their own proportions. The trend of improvement is also likely to limit the opportunities for backlight manufacturers to OEM.
Macquarie said that although the market is optimistic about China's lighting orders, most of them are in the middle and low-power markets. The gross profit is lower than that of LED TV. Point out the new century of Taiwan chip manufacturing factory, optimistic about the new century to invest in high-end TV chips and China. The outdoor display market is expected to lock in the development of the lighting market in China and Japan.
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