The screen can be bent and folded, a thin TV screen like a paper; transparent windows can let light shine in during the day, and become a light source at night; navigation information can be played through the car windshield. The beauty of these future electronics products is due to OLED technology.
Just as the domestic color TV industry is struggling and the LCD is transformed from CCFL to LED, this technology, called "the replacement of liquid crystal display", has begun a big step in industrialization.
On January 20, it was learned that Guangzhou Xinshijie Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by Skyworth Group and South China University of Technology, has overcome the key technologies of metal oxide semiconductor TFT substrates and obtained the 3.5-generation line AM OLED industry technology with independent intellectual property rights. And to achieve mass production. In the past two years, O LED investment in various parts of the country has been heating up, and several production lines have been launched.
Although domestic manufacturers have changed the habit of cutting into the market after the technology matures, they still have a big gap in the industrialization of new technologies compared with foreign competitors. Today, Samsung has set its sights on the planning of the 55-inch large-size model, and plans to build the eighth-generation OLED test production line in 2011 or 2012; LG plans to mass-produce 31-inch 3D-OLED panels in the US and Europe during the year. Sony, which has been crouching for more than a year in OLED, exhibited 24-inch naked-eye 3D OLED TV at this year's CES, and even Li Dongsheng, chairman of TCL Group (000100), praised it as "very eye-catching."
Research reports from research firm DisplaySearch show that OLED TVs will maintain growth rates of more than 300% in the next few years, and their speed beyond LCD TVs may be faster than LCD TVs instead of CRTs.
It is worth noting that for domestic manufacturers, the real worry may be the major test of how to take into account the development of new display technology in the LCD era. At present, the domestic color TV industry is trying to establish its own LCD panel production line in order to break through the situation of LCD screens in the upstream. Once the OLED replacement trend continues to accelerate, these investments will face difficulties in recovering costs; if it is now invested in the development of the OLED industry And industrialization, can limited resources be enough to cope with the competitive pressure of the LCD era?
Break through the role of laggards
In the process of global display technology development, local enterprises failed to follow up in the early stage of the development of CRT and LCD technology, and finally could only play the role of low-profit manufacturing and foundry in the industry chain, leading to price wars in foreign brands. At that time, domestic brands can only passively face the coercion of foreign-funded enterprises.
"As far as the enterprises in the consumer electronics industry are concerned, in order to achieve sustainable development of enterprises, it is necessary to have the right to define products. The right to define products is not only the price, but also the key components and cores of the core technology, application patents and products. Control of parts and R&D and manufacturing. That is, enterprises must have a complete industrial chain and integrated industrial structure and technical support in the field of consumer electronics. Without this guarantee, enterprises can only become a simple manufacturing factory, then yours Enterprises will always be the lowest-end, the most end, and there is no room for further appreciation," Liu Haizhong, director of the Planning Department of Changhong Group, told the Times Weekly reporter.
Prospects in technology research and development have made foreign companies also ahead in the field of OLED. In the United States, Kodak, Japan's Sony, Pioneer, and South Korea's Samsung, LG and other 21 companies realized the mass production of small and medium-sized OLED panels as early as 2004, and began to widely use it in mobile phones, MP4, automotive electronics and other fields. .
DisplaySearch data shows that in 2009, global OLED panel shipments amounted to 826 million US dollars. South Korea's Samsung, Taiwan's Sic Bo and Japan Pioneer ranked the top three in terms of OLED panel shipments. Among them, Samsung dominates the global small and medium size O LED display market with a market share of over 95%.
Nowadays, the global OLED market is in the middle stage of industrialization, and the market situation is similar to the development of the LCD industry around 2000. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes in the LCD era, domestic companies have begun to lay out in the OLED industry.
Generally speaking, OLED is divided into active matrix (AMOLED) and passive matrix (PMOLED). PMOLED is the main technology of early OLED, which has the advantages of power saving, but the reaction is slow, and it cannot achieve a large size. The characteristics are suitable for lighting applications; AMOLED is very suitable for application in display devices because of its fast response, and is considered to be the best alternative to liquid crystal technology in the future.
Tianma Electronics' transformation of the 4.5-generation AMOLED line and Visionox's AMOLED production line is expected to be mass-produced in 2012. Hongshi Group's subsidiary, Hongshi, started the AMOLED pilot line construction in December 2009. It has independently mastered the key technologies of the industry-leading metal-induced low-temperature polysilicon, and has successfully developed 2.6~7.6-inch AMOLED samples.
The new vision optoelectronic technology of Skyworth Group has chosen TFT substrate as the industry entry point. It has independently designed and developed three series of products with 128×128, 320×240 and 640×480 pixels to meet the needs of small and medium-sized AMOLED.
At present, only one of the AMOLED industries is capable of mass production, and LG, AUO and Chi Mei are all building production lines, which will be mass-produced this year. It can be seen that the domestic AMOLED industry development is basically synchronized with foreign countries, and the mass production time gap is estimated to be within one year. This shows that China's industrialization process in this field has not been stuck, which is different from LCD.
In addition, due to the large initial investment of the AMOLED panel production line, the long depreciation period, and the 1-2 year capacity ramp-up period, the enterprises that are first put into production will be depreciated first, and the capacity ramp-up period will be early. After the competition of enterprises entering the industry, a huge cost advantage can be obtained.
"It is expected that the initial start-up period of AMOLED will be about 5 years, and it will enter a high-speed growth period in 2013," said Chen Gang, chief analyst of the Oriental Securities military electronics industry. At present, the purchase price of 3.7-inch AMOLED panels commonly used in mobile phones is more than 200 yuan. The cost is only about 50 yuan, and the gross profit margin is as high as 75%, which is much higher than the 20%-30% gross profit margin of the TFT panel. Even if the price is reduced by 50% in 2012, the gross profit margin is estimated to be more than 50%. At the same time, many mobile phone manufacturers are taking a wait-and-see attitude towards adopting AMOLED because of the high risk of the supply chain out of stock in Samsung. According to the current production schedule, it is expected that 5-6 manufacturers will be able to supply AMOLED this year. At that time, the downstream mobile phone industry may have explosive growth in the demand for AMOLED. The market is expected to be in short supply for a long period of time, so the initial participating manufacturers will all be able to obtain high returns.
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However, OLED technology is also at risk.
Since the current LTPS technology is only applied to the 4.5-generation TFT production line, although the 4.5-generation production line can cut up to 20-inch panels, the medium and small size of the cutting is less economical. Therefore, the current AMOLED is mainly applied to panels below 7 inches, and the LTPS technology is mainly used. Limitations in production line generation have limited the development of AMOLEDs to larger sizes. In addition, the vacuum evaporation process faces problems such as uneven vapor deposition area and low material utilization rate when manufacturing a larger-sized panel. Therefore, the larger the size, the more the geometrical cost of the OLED TV increases.
At present, O LED displays invested by local manufacturers are mainly concentrated in small and medium sizes, mainly used in mobile phones and smart terminals, and large-size OLED displays are still difficult to break. Samsung and LG have actively introduced the 5.5-generation panel line of 32, 21.5-inch OLED TVs that can best produce the most economical cutting rate. The strategic intention of expanding the lead gap is obvious.
Liu Haizhong said, "Because of the small scale, technical forms and technical costs have yet to be further improved, OLEDs must be fully industrialized, and there are cost issues." Take Sony as an example. In 2004, its first mass production of small models, all Color OLED panels, however, have not slowed down the pace of research and development in recent years because they have not found a solution to reduce costs.
In addition to price factors, the speed of OLEDs to replace LCD TVs has also made local manufacturers retreat.
Zhang Bing, director of DisplaySearch China, believes that since Samsung, Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic currently have their own large-size LCD or plasma screen production lines, the cost recovery of these LCD panel factories takes 5-8 years, in LCD or In the case that the previous investment in plasma panels failed to recover, these giants apparently did not want to see OLEDs replace LCD TVs too quickly.
For domestic companies, this may lead to two situations: First, if they now direct limited resources to the research and industrialization of OLEDs, they may lose their voice in the LCD field; second, in recent years, Changing the upstream resources is subject to people's unfavorable situation. Many local color TV manufacturers are working hard to establish their own LCD panel production lines. If the OLED replacement trend suddenly strengthens, these investments may face the embarrassment of losing money.
The risk of frightening wars has led some vendors to adopt a relatively insured approach. Skyworth insiders revealed to Time Weekly that although Skyworth is still in the pilot stage of OLED field, it also considers building OLED panel lines. "But it must wait until the technology is mature and the process breaks. Skyworth will consider whether the panel line is all for itself or seek partners. Together, the cost of re-establishing an AMOLED production line equipment is comparable to that of a TFT-LCD panel production line. The cost is high. Manufacturers like Skyworth actually use the existing low-temperature polysilicon LTPS process. Cut in to significantly reduce the cost of production line construction.
According to Wang Dongsheng, chairman of BOE, because AMOLED and TFT-LCD production processes are 70% connected, AMOLED needs to be developed on the basis of TFT. AMOLEDs include arrays, coated luminescent materials, and modules. Devices originally invested in TFT-LCD arrays and module parts can be retained. Devices in color film and box-forming parts can also be used to invest in touch technology or other technologies. Therefore, as long as the AMOLED technology is mature, the existing TFT-LCD production line can be transformed into an AMOLED production line.
As Zhang Xuebin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Skyworth Group, said, “We can't give up the present for the future.†According to the DisplaySearch survey, the global sales of LCD TVs will reach 188 million units in 2012, when China’s market share will reach 21%, making it the largest in the world. LCD TV consumer market. In the next few years, the TV market is still the world of LCD. Perhaps the dispute over the technical route will eventually return to the final decision by the demand side.
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